Originally published November 29, 2014 at 6:01 PM | Page modified November 29, 2014 at 11:51 PM
Seahawks likely heading south if they can’t catch Arizona
Four years later, the possibility of playing a losing team on the road in the playoffs as the defending Super Bowl champion is staring Seattle in the face.
Seattle Times staff reporter
If it happens, Seattle traveling to play whichever wretched team wins the NFC South, the Seahawks can hardly complain.
They should be happy they will almost certainly have company sharing some dubious NFL history.
It was in 2010 when Seattle won the NFC West at 7-9, becoming the only NFL team with a losing record to qualify for the playoffs.
That allowed Seattle to host the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints, a day on which Marshawn Lynch gave birth to Beast Mode. That run, coupled with Seattle’s win, helped turn something of an embarrassment for the NFL into one of the more memorable afternoons in Seahawks history.
Four years later, the possibility of playing a losing team on the road in the playoffs as the defending Super Bowl champion is staring Seattle in the face.
If the season ended after the games of Thursday night, that’s exactly what Seattle would have to do. The Seahawks hold the No. 5 seed and would be slated to play at Atlanta, which despite a 4-7 record is the “leader’’ in the NFC South and would have the No. 4 seed.
In an even better slice of potential turnabout, New Orleans is also 4-7, but currently loses out on the tiebreaker thanks to a season-opening defeat to the Falcons. The teams play again in New Orleans on Dec. 21.
Seattle, though, is hoping for more.
And after the way they have played the last two games, there’s no reason to think the Seahawks can’t still make a run at a repeat NFC West title, which brings with it a much easier route through the playoffs, guaranteeing at least one home game and possibly a bye in the first weekend (the top two seeds get byes).
Interestingly, it’s the aforementioned Falcons from whom Seattle is hoping for some help this weekend, as Atlanta hosts Arizona Sunday.
Mostly, though, the battle for the NFC West is one that Seattle figures to have to win on the field.
To reset where we are, Seattle is 8-4 while Arizona is 9-2 heading into the game against Atlanta.
That has the Cardinals with the No. 1 seed in the NFC followed by Philadelphia (9-3), Green Bay (8-3 and hosting New England Sunday) and Atlanta.
Seattle, Detroit and Dallas, which all played on Thanksgiving, are all 8-4. Seattle and Detroit are ahead of Dallas based on better conference record (the Seahawks and Lions are each 6-2 to the Cowboys’ 5-4). The Seahawks then win a tiebreaker with the Lions based on record in common games (4-0 to 2-2). If Seattle and Dallas were to end in a two-way tie, Dallas would get the nod based on head-to-head.
In scenarios where there is a three-team tie, though, Seattle’s edges on Detroit ( in common games) and Dallas (in conference record) won’t change.
Seattle also has an edge on the 49ers, who are 7-5, both in the standings and in the head-to-head tiebreaker, with San Francisco making a return visit to CenturyLink Field Dec. 14.
No one else in the NFC logically has a shot at the wild card, meaning the Seahawks are suddenly in really good shape for a playoff spot, barring a collapse.
Seattle entered the weekend with its remaining schedule deemed the toughest of any of the NFC West teams. But beating the 49ers went a long way toward improving the Seahawks’ odds.
Given the schedules of each of the other teams, wins in three of the last four games for the Seahawks should comfortably get them in at 11-5, and two wins might be enough (the website 538.com now gives Seattle a 73.4 percent chance to make the playoffs, up from 53.7 before the 49ers game).
As for razing Arizona, it figures to all come down to a Dec. 21 game in Glendale.
After playing at Atlanta, the Cardinals host Kansas City, play at St. Louis, host Seattle and finish at San Francisco.
Arizona could easily lose two more of those. But if one of them isn’t against Seattle, then it likely won’t matter. Because if Arizona beats the Seahawks, it’s hard to envision the Cardinals losing three other games that would be necessary to force a tie (which the Seahawks would win based on head-to-head).
So beat Arizona, or a role-reversing trip to the south may well await.
What if the playoffs started today? | ||
The Seahawks would be a wild-card team. | ||
Top 2 AFC teams | Seed | W-L |
---|---|---|
Patriots | 1 | 9-2 |
Broncos | 2 | 8-3 |
Top 2 NFC teams | Seed | W-L |
Cardinals | 1 | 9-2 |
Eagles | 2 | 9-3 |
Other AFC playoff teams | Seed | W-L |
Bengals | 3 | 7-3-1 |
Colts | 4 | 7-4 |
Chiefs | 5 | 7-4 |
Chargers | 6 | 7-4 |
Other NFC playoff teams | Seed | W-L |
Packers | 3 | 8-3 |
Falcons | 4 | 4-7 |
Seahawks | 5 | 8-4 |
Lions | 6 | 8-4 |
Source: nfl.com |
Bob Condotta: 206-515-5699 or bcondotta@seattletimes.com. On Twitter @bcondotta